About
Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.
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Time Series Analysis with GRETL
This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...
Showing posts with label world stock markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label world stock markets. Show all posts
Thursday 26 March 2015
Nifty Gold Uptrend in Question
Labels:
american stock exchange,
stock exchange,
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world stock market
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Monday 23 March 2015
Nifty Over Extended Vs the Dollar
The Nifty has been even out performing even the strong dollar off late. The dollar has been strengthening significantly this year and has virtually out performed a whole host of asset classes. The Nifty and few other stock indices like the S and P 500 and the German Dax have outperformed the dollar. A bit of under performance vs the dollar has begun and is overdue for the Nifty. Chart courtesy StockCharts.com.
Labels:
american stock exchange,
stock exchange,
stock exchange market,
stock market exchange,
stock market us,
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us stock markets,
world stock markets,
world stock market
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Sunday 22 March 2015
Baltic Dry Index still near life lows
Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for the baltic dry index, which is close to its life lows and down over 95% from the highs set in 2008. Obviously the massive influx of liquidity form QE's in the US, Europe and Japan hasn't really helped the global economy.
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american stock exchange,
stock exchange,
stock exchange market,
stock market exchange,
stock market us,
us market,
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us stock markets,
world stock markets,
world stock market
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Monday 16 March 2015
Behind the tantrums of QE withdrawal lies a very grave deflationary threat
Last week most risk assets sold of on the prospects of QE withdrawal following strong job numbers out of the U.S. Here's how things shaped up:
The S & P 500 was down well over 1%
Gold was down close to 1%
Oil was down close to 10%
Copper was up about 2.5%
Emerging markets were down close to 3%
The clear winner was the dollar which surged nearly 2%
If markets were really bothered about inflation, gold and oil would be going through the roof instead they have absolutely collapsed over the past year:
In addition the flight to quality trade that surfaced during the recession of 2008 into the dollar seems to have emerged with a vengeance:
While one may want to brush aside the emergence of deflation which has already started to surface in recent PPI and CPI numbers, let's not forget what it did to Japan since the early 90's. Despite the all out war to contain deflation in Japan interest rates are still negative and the stock market which has rallied off late is still down over 50% from the highs it set in 1989.
The S & P 500 was down well over 1%
Gold was down close to 1%
Oil was down close to 10%
Copper was up about 2.5%
Emerging markets were down close to 3%
The clear winner was the dollar which surged nearly 2%
If markets were really bothered about inflation, gold and oil would be going through the roof instead they have absolutely collapsed over the past year:
In addition the flight to quality trade that surfaced during the recession of 2008 into the dollar seems to have emerged with a vengeance:
While one may want to brush aside the emergence of deflation which has already started to surface in recent PPI and CPI numbers, let's not forget what it did to Japan since the early 90's. Despite the all out war to contain deflation in Japan interest rates are still negative and the stock market which has rallied off late is still down over 50% from the highs it set in 1989.
Labels:
american stock exchange,
stock exchange,
stock exchange market,
stock market exchange,
stock market us,
us market,
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us stock markets,
world stock markets,
world stock market
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 18 February 2015
Warning Signs for Global Financial Markets in 2015-16
There are two major warning signs that are developing for risk assets in 2015:
First we have significant #dollar strength despite a recent bounce in the euro, with the dollar index hitting multi-year highs. This is on the back of the potential end to the quantitative easing by the fed but also due to weakening fundamentals in the# Euro Zone which is mired in a deep recession and is unlikely to come out of it any time soon despite huge dosages of QE from the ECB.
Even after another bailout for Greece, which is tantamount to throwing good money after bad dollar strength is all set to continue and would result in a serious bout of carry trade liquidation that could take down commodities, emerging market currencies and eventually global stock markets:
The second major development is the potential upsurge in volatility. The #Vix index has not made new lows on each of the recent new highs for the S and P 500 in well over a year and is holding support in a multi year rounding bottom formation. This has resolved into higher prices for the Vix over the 50 level in August and lower prices for risk assets across the board. The Vix is incidentally well above it's 52 week low of 10.28.
Both these trends are set to continue into 2016 which could result in significant under performance of financial markets across the globe.
Warning signs for risk assets in 2015-16 http://t.co/SC6JzKADnp pic.twitter.com/JlxRFU9vxy
— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 7, 2015
Labels:
american stock exchange,
stock exchange,
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stock market exchange,
stock market us,
us market,
us stock market,
us stock markets,
world stock markets,
world stock market
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Tuesday 3 February 2015
Down goes the Baltic Dry Index yet again
Another 28 year low for the baltic dry index, now down over 95% from it's all time highs, questioning the so called economic recovery these last 5 years and confirming that QE forever policies in the US, Japan and the Euro Zone are destined for failure. Eventually the weak economy globally should translate into lower asset prices across the globe.
Labels:
american stock exchange,
stock exchange,
stock exchange market,
stock market exchange,
stock market us,
us market,
us stock market,
us stock markets,
world stock markets,
world stock market
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Tuesday 16 December 2014
The dominoes keep falling one after another
Lets take a look at a few charts courtesy yahoo finance and market watch.com. First we started with the well over 95% crash in the Baltic dry index (#bdi).
Then we had a over 40% plunge in #gold and #silver prices as symbolized by the respective ETF's:
This was matched by over a 40% plunge in base metals:
Followed by the dramatic over 50% plunge in #oil:
This has translated into a rout in the junk bond market:
Which will most certainly nail banks which have exposure to this toxic stuff:
No surprise then at the flight to quality bid emerging in US treasuries and the #dollar:
And carry trade liquidation should start any moment with a bid for the Japanese #Yen:
All in all we have sown the seeds for the great depression of the 21 st century and the U.S Fed and its fellow central banks can do absolutely nothing about it.
Then we had a over 40% plunge in #gold and #silver prices as symbolized by the respective ETF's:
This was matched by over a 40% plunge in base metals:
Followed by the dramatic over 50% plunge in #oil:
This has translated into a rout in the junk bond market:
Which will most certainly nail banks which have exposure to this toxic stuff:
No surprise then at the flight to quality bid emerging in US treasuries and the #dollar:
And carry trade liquidation should start any moment with a bid for the Japanese #Yen:
All in all we have sown the seeds for the great depression of the 21 st century and the U.S Fed and its fellow central banks can do absolutely nothing about it.
The dominoes Keep falling one by one http://t.co/lfL8gIu1o2 pic.twitter.com/wAkJpkNixp
— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 8, 2015
Labels:
american stock exchange,
forex,
stock exchange,
stock exchange market,
stock market exchange,
stock market us,
us market,
us stock market,
us stock markets,
world stock markets,
world stock market
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Monday 15 December 2014
Deflation to trigger junk bond rout?
The deflationary collapse of oil is clearly threatening to take down other risky asset classes with it, most notably of late the junk bond market
the makings of a brand new financial crisis!
the makings of a brand new financial crisis!
Labels:
american stock exchange,
forex,
stock exchange,
stock exchange market,
stock market exchange,
stock market us,
us market,
us stock market,
us stock markets,
world stock markets,
world stock market
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Thursday 4 December 2014
Collapsing Oil price flat out deflationary
The recent 40% decline in oil the past 6 months is flat out deflationary. Look at the popularly traded oil ETF. This taken together with the collapse in other industrial commodities has generated a major deflationary signal. The collapse in the Euro also lends further support to the deflationary theme emerging.
The last time oil approached it's cost of production was just before the financial crisis of 2008. Just a matter of time before the collapse in gold, silver, copper, oil and other industrially sensitive commodities spreads to other risky asset classes like stocks.
The last time oil approached it's cost of production was just before the financial crisis of 2008. Just a matter of time before the collapse in gold, silver, copper, oil and other industrially sensitive commodities spreads to other risky asset classes like stocks.
Labels:
american stock exchange,
forex,
stock exchange,
stock exchange market,
stock market exchange,
stock market us,
us market,
us stock market,
us stock markets,
world stock markets,
world stock market
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Thursday 20 November 2014
Vix is warning trouble ahead?
While the S&P is at new highs
The Vix is not making new lows, on the other hand it is threatening to break out significantly higher
This suggests the upcoming market sell off will be far worse than the October pull back.
The Vix is not making new lows, on the other hand it is threatening to break out significantly higher
This suggests the upcoming market sell off will be far worse than the October pull back.
Labels:
american stock exchange,
forex,
stock exchange,
stock exchange market,
stock market exchange,
stock market us,
us market,
us stock market,
us stock markets,
world stock markets,
world stock market
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 12 November 2014
long bonds signalling onset of deflation?
30 yr long bond yields about to break below 3% in the U.S despite all the QE withdrawal talk confirming the onset of deflation. Chart courtesy yahoo finance.
Labels:
american stock exchange,
forex,
stock exchange,
stock exchange market,
stock market exchange,
stock market us,
us market,
us stock market,
us stock markets,
world stock markets,
world stock market
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
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World Indices
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Market Insight
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My Favorite Books
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- One up on Wall Street
- Beating the Street
- Remniscience of a stock operator
Trading Ideas
Forex Insight
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Economic Calendar
India Market Insight
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.